This feels like a bad time to be investing in unknowns …

This surely is an interesting time in our hobby. Money is flowing like water for some folks and many are willing to take more chances than ever.

You do you. But if you ask me … this sure seems like a horrible time to be investing in unknowns.

Major League Baseball returned to action this week after having the season delayed due to COVID-19. And after three games we have our first major outbreak with more than a dozen Miami Marlins players and personnel returning a positive test.

The result has been at least one canceled game, which immediately reignites the talking point that some have had for months: How the are they going to play a completed “season” during a health crisis like this?

You can believe what you want about COVID. Fact of the matter is that it’s real, people have died — and yes many have not — and we don’t know how each individual is going to react if they contract the disease so safety protocols are enacted all over the world t slow the spread until a vaccine is produced. In the sports we’ve been introduced to a term like “in the bubble,” and we frequently hear about mandatory testing and quarantine.

So how does all of this relate to card investments? Well, here: If games can’t be played, then players can’t prove or disprove their relative worth to their sports or teams, and thereby collectors/investors have nothing to really gauge their value.

Don’t you find it odd that during a 100-day period where none of the major sports were being played that values of young players — and a fair amount of stars — skyrocketed?

It’s because much of the investing side of this hobby/business is built on “promise.” It’s built on the idea that today’s big prospect is tomorrow’s next Mike Trout, who of course is still in the midst of being the next Mickey Mantle or Willie Mays. This is the baseball analogy, but there are similar arguments in other sorts.

And if this 60-game baseball season can’t have a proper conclusion — all games being played and a playoff — how are those guys going to show their worth?

Luis Robert had a really good weekend, Kyle Lewis did as well. But if the season got called off today, or in a week or month, is that going to be enough to keep your interest longterm?

And how on earth is Jasson Dominguez ever going to show us how he performs in a game with professionals if the Minor League season has been canceled? I mean batting practice homeruns can only keep the pilot light on for so long.

Investing, or maybe flipping is better term, is an art. I realize that. None of the aforementioned players have to become a Hall of Famer for YOU to have done well on your particular investment, after all the key is being able to capture the money between buying low and any higher price. But for the ones who keep buying at the high end, doesn’t the uncertainty of games even being played scare you away?

Again, you’re going to do what you do with your money. I’m no financial guru. But for me, I just don’t see how this is an optimal time to be buying on the high end for any player whom I can’t sit and at least think about their good years simply because they’ve not been able to have them.

One Response to “This feels like a bad time to be investing in unknowns …”

  1. John Bateman Says:

    I think it goes to your first sentence. Money is flowing, all those people who were going to games, movies, vacations. have a lot of unused cash around, I think that is what is driving the price of cards. Will the prices come down, Yes, I can see the market crashing like 1991, 1992 in about a year or two.

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