Archive for investments

This feels like a bad time to be investing in unknowns …

Posted in Commentary, Misc. with tags , , , , , , on July 27, 2020 by Cardboard Icons

This surely is an interesting time in our hobby. Money is flowing like water for some folks and many are willing to take more chances than ever.

You do you. But if you ask me … this sure seems like a horrible time to be investing in unknowns.

Major League Baseball returned to action this week after having the season delayed due to COVID-19. And after three games we have our first major outbreak with more than a dozen Miami Marlins players and personnel returning a positive test.

The result has been at least one canceled game, which immediately reignites the talking point that some have had for months: How the are they going to play a completed “season” during a health crisis like this?

You can believe what you want about COVID. Fact of the matter is that it’s real, people have died — and yes many have not — and we don’t know how each individual is going to react if they contract the disease so safety protocols are enacted all over the world t slow the spread until a vaccine is produced. In the sports we’ve been introduced to a term like “in the bubble,” and we frequently hear about mandatory testing and quarantine.

So how does all of this relate to card investments? Well, here: If games can’t be played, then players can’t prove or disprove their relative worth to their sports or teams, and thereby collectors/investors have nothing to really gauge their value.

Don’t you find it odd that during a 100-day period where none of the major sports were being played that values of young players — and a fair amount of stars — skyrocketed?

It’s because much of the investing side of this hobby/business is built on “promise.” It’s built on the idea that today’s big prospect is tomorrow’s next Mike Trout, who of course is still in the midst of being the next Mickey Mantle or Willie Mays. This is the baseball analogy, but there are similar arguments in other sorts.

And if this 60-game baseball season can’t have a proper conclusion — all games being played and a playoff — how are those guys going to show their worth?

Luis Robert had a really good weekend, Kyle Lewis did as well. But if the season got called off today, or in a week or month, is that going to be enough to keep your interest longterm?

And how on earth is Jasson Dominguez ever going to show us how he performs in a game with professionals if the Minor League season has been canceled? I mean batting practice homeruns can only keep the pilot light on for so long.

Investing, or maybe flipping is better term, is an art. I realize that. None of the aforementioned players have to become a Hall of Famer for YOU to have done well on your particular investment, after all the key is being able to capture the money between buying low and any higher price. But for the ones who keep buying at the high end, doesn’t the uncertainty of games even being played scare you away?

Again, you’re going to do what you do with your money. I’m no financial guru. But for me, I just don’t see how this is an optimal time to be buying on the high end for any player whom I can’t sit and at least think about their good years simply because they’ve not been able to have them.

Embrace these times; things won’t always be this good

Posted in Commentary with tags , , , , , , on May 6, 2020 by Cardboard Icons

For about 20 years, we’ve been talking about the rise and fall of the hobby since the days of the Junk Wax Era. We have shared and embraced story after story discussing the great times we had during the 1980s and 1990s as this hobby rose to stardom.

We discussed the simplicity as well as the ingenuity of the time. We discussed chasing rising stars who eventually flamed out on the big stage, or never even got there. We discussed a time when base cards and simple parallels or inserts carried massive premiums only to be forgotten as interests shifted to relics and autos.

Then of course we discussed how that all attention had waned, and how seemingly almost everything from our youth became worthless. Simplicity was for the most part thought of as over-produced rubbish that many discarded at thrift stores, or even burned in their backyard bonfires.

But due to various influences (both people and circumstances) here in 2020 we have arrived at the summit of the collecting world again. Business is booming — it actually has been fairly healthy for the better part of a half decade or longer — and now our hobby has national eyes on it again. The folks who collected in their youth are returning to recapture the feelings they left behind when they discovered other interests, or because life took them in a different direction. And then of course there are folks who see dollar signs and view cards as an area for investment.

Like many collectors, I cringe when I hear that folks are treating these cards as investments. I don’t have an economics background, but I know from experience that the investment piece of this hobby/business is real, but also is an area that is ripe with scams, con-artists and really is something built on the notion that others believe in the idea that “he’ll only get better” and plays on the character flaw of FOMO, the acronym for “fear of missing out.”

Where things have changed recently for me is a shift in mindset about these so-called newcomers. It’s still frustrating and mind-boggling at times to see the big numbers thrown around at cards we considered to be forgotten or relatively worthless, but I’ve been trying to be more accepting of these folks. In reality, this isn’t all that different that the boom that many of us 30- or 40-somethings had a part in when we joined this world of baseball cards. I mean it’s not like folks were always spending hundreds, thousands, or hundreds of thousands of dollars on cards, let alone a singular card.

Instead of pushing back against this new type of hobbyist, we should to some degree be embracing the voracity with which folks are enjoying ANY aspect of this hobby. I don’t chase prospects anymore and can’t see the allure to spending hundreds of dollars on unproven players, but others do. And it is because of their dedication to breaking that stuff that small businesses (online breakers and even some brick and mortar stores) are enjoying success; it is also why other cards filter to different types of collectors at prices that don’t always make sense. Their “loss” is other persons “gain.”

At some point we can expect there will be some sort of regression, and with it a lot of finger pointing and laughing because that’s just how some folks are, but for now we should understand that this hobby/business/market is no longer just about the old school curmudgeons who love splitting hairs about hobby definitions and can’t see past the idea that folks with different mind sets might also enjoy cards, even if their type of enjoyment or their reasons for being involved is not the same as our personal reasons.

There isn’t just one way to sort a stack of cards; to organize your collection; or to protect your cardboard assets. Then it is wrong for us to assume there is only one way to participate in this world of sports cards.